# Tragedy in the Alps - a look back



## neni (Dec 24, 2012)

In a storm this spring, 16 people had died. Not by an avalanche. By hypothermia after getting lost in the storm. When I heard about it in April I was all like how can this happen? Here? It's not some remote place like in Himalayas! Alps! On one of the most frequented routes of all...

After lot of initial confusion, after months have passed, this article tries to shed light on how this could have happened. Very instructive, and intimidating, too. 
What would I have done...? Would I have behaved differently? Easy questions to ask if at home, safe, warm... But in the situation? Would I...? 

https://www.outsideonline.com/23290...ms&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=onsiteshare


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## Lad Stones (Sep 9, 2016)

I'll take a read of this thanks. I wonder if frequent practice of the Wim Hof Method would help people in extreme cold situations like this. Like having more control and better able to think. I don't know but maybe.


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## phillyphan (Sep 22, 2016)

Very good read.


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## f00bar (Mar 6, 2014)

I didn't read the entire thing, just skimmed it, but am I correct in saying that an over reliance in technology led them into making some poor choices when it failed them?


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## lab49232 (Sep 13, 2011)

f00bar said:


> I didn't read the entire thing, just skimmed it, but am I correct in saying that an over reliance in technology led them into making some poor choices when it failed them?


It was a million poor choices. The guide f-ed up pretty bad, and only bringing a cell phone was only part of it. Then nobody else chose to think or evaluate anything themselves despite all of their experience. Group mentality though. Just keep everyone n your group in every situation constantly thinking about safety and this won't happen. The second one or two people start getting lax, more follow, and then suddenly everyone in the group is going how did this happen how did nobody catch this.


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## motleybeast (Mar 25, 2015)

lab49232 said:


> It was a million poor choices. The guide f-ed up pretty bad, and only bringing a cell phone was only part of it. Then nobody else chose to think or evaluate anything themselves despite all of their experience. Group mentality though. Just keep everyone n your group in every situation constantly thinking about safety and this won't happen. The second one or two people start getting lax, more follow, and then suddenly everyone in the group is going how did this happen how did nobody catch this.


I think you summed it up quite well.

And a good reminder of how things can very quickly go very wrong. Was only supposed to have been a morning trip!

That was an interesting and good read Neni.


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## neni (Dec 24, 2012)

lab49232 said:


> It was a million poor choices. The guide f-ed up pretty bad, and only bringing a cell phone was only part of it. Then nobody else chose to think or evaluate anything themselves despite all of their experience.


I agree that many things went wrong. But we do not know if group members didn't oppose during the day and chose to continue. As most died, we will never know. I mean, you hire an expert because you're no expert, and trust his decisions. (You sit into a plane and trust that the pilot will fly without checking his instruments). So if the guide thinks the weather will hold, I can understand when guests who are not familiar with the local weather pattern trust his take.

However, I'm flabbergasted, too, by two other things. The main crucial step I cannot understand is that their arrival wasn't registered at the next hut. If it would have, the ppl there would have expected them and begun to worry, called in the other hut to check if they had left, heard that they indeed did and sent out a search team as soon as weather allowed. The lost group may have been found hours earlier (as they were in hearing distance from the route), hours which may had been enough to avoid lethal hypothermia.

The other thing is that the guests obviously didn't know the route, as the survivor sais. This is strange. I've never been on a guided tour where there wasn't a briefing the day before where the giude showed on a map where we'll head, where the decision making points are, and what the options would be. 

Those two points a guest can influence. I'd trust a guides take on the weather. But I'd insist on having a briefing to know the route/options, check safety backups whenever a giud wouldn'tdo this. And, after reading this article, "ask if our arrival is announced at the hut" will be a new item on my checklist.


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## chomps1211 (Mar 30, 2011)

Hard to say with absolute certainty, but it appears that the entire group sublimated their own judgement and common sense, critical thinking for that of the 'expert' guides. So when he made several critical errors in judgement,... they blindly followed without question. 

@neni is right. Even if you hire a guide for their knowledge & experience in the area,.. one should take the time to know something about where & how they will be traveling. Also, I would insist on being briefed on the where, when, why & what constitutes a 'Go-No go' decision. 

Then again,... 20-20 hindsight! :shrug: IRL, I might have just deferred to 'authority' and lemming'd along off the cliff with the rest of the herd. :shrug:

I'd like to think I had more sense than that.


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## mojo maestro (Jan 6, 2009)

Mountains are dangerous.........regardless of how close to civilization...............technology fails.........regardless of "backups"............guides are human.........regardless of experience.......


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## killclimbz (Aug 10, 2007)

As has been stated several times by professionals, as soon as you are outside of the ropes at a ski area, you are in the backcountry. There have been avalanche deaths within less than 20 feet of a road or parking lot.

This case shows a lot of problems found with hueristic traps in backcountry travel. This was a well respected guide with tons of experience, but it seems not as knowledgeable about this tour. Everyone gave him the "expert halo" treatment. Many members of the group had experience, but did not speak up. Even with some of the questionable decisions. Equipment decisions on what to carry didn't help. Lots of small mistakes that added up to a big problem. 

The expert halo is something I have to battle with almost every season. I am not an avalanche professional, but I do work closely with those in the industry due to my association with non profit avalanche aware organizations. I also do avalanche awareness presentations in front of large groups from time to time as a result. 

I do find myself going out with people who have a lot less experience than I do. This is the toughest group to go out with. I always try to get one of my experienced peers to go with me as it provides a double check, but that can not always happen. There are generally a few things I try to do in this situation.

The first one is I call out observations I am seeing as potential warnings, something to watch, etc. I try to engage the others in the group to tell me what they are seeing. I also try to get the group members to dictate what they want to ride given their comfort level. I will discuss the options I am willing to look at and see what they are up for. There are some things I just won't do on a given day, and that is off the table from the beginning. Then I need to see what the group thinks. If someone does speak up and says they don't want to do something, then it's off the table too.

Unfortunately, after all of that, I am still given the expert halo and most people just nod and try to agree. Which means, I have to dial it back to be sure we have a good safe time. I have not always been perfect at this but as time goes on I feel that I have become much better.

Finally, I have a lot of seasoned partners, who started out at the experience level listed above with me. They now know the game and are trusted. It's not rocket science. You can learn the game fairly easily if you are so inclined.

The biggest issue I find with this accident is the belief in the guide. I always question guides. Did that on a cat trip, have done that in avalanche classes. If they take offense and shut you down. Might be time to reconsider who you are following. If they are willing to discuss it, tell you their logic, and it makes sense, then you are probably in good hands. 

Another thing, it is easy to fall into the trap that group did. On the cat trip, I did start out as just following along. Then as we got into more complicated terrain, I started calling out my observations and asking the guides lots of questions. While I didn't get us to change terrain because of avalanche danger, I did get us to change aspect to ride deeper powder based on comments I made. So that was a win. 

Ultimately, avalanches, weather conditions, and the like, don't care if you are an expert or beginner. They are equal opportunists. Mistakes will kill you if you give them the opportunity. 

Long post, apologies. Obviously something I feel strongly about.


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## chomps1211 (Mar 30, 2011)

killclimbz said:


> ….I always question guides. ….If they take offense and shut you down. Might be time to reconsider who you are following. If they are willing to discuss it, tell you their logic, and it makes sense, then you are probably in good hands.


Best advice ever! Applies equally to doctors and other so called "experts/professionals!!"


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## wrathfuldeity (Oct 5, 2007)

killclimbz said:


> The biggest issue I find with this accident is the belief in the guide. I *always question guides. Did that on a cat trip, have done that in avalanche classes. If they take offense and shut you down. Might be time to reconsider who you are following. If they are willing to discuss it, tell you their logic, and it makes sense, then you are probably in good hands. *
> 
> Another thing, it is easy to fall into the trap that group did. On the cat trip, I did start out as just following along. Then as we got into more complicated terrain, *I started calling out my observations and asking the guides lots of questions.* While I didn't get us to change terrain because of avalanche danger, I did get us to change aspect to ride deeper powder based on comments I made. So that was a win.
> 
> ...


Thanks Killz, 
This seems to be a big take away. Me thinks a real pro, knows this is part of the job, i.e., being questioned and challenged. And as a result of this process, it is really becomes an education opportunity for both the pro and the newbs. To take it abit further, perhaps the pro could take the perspective of the newb and note the typical newb's fears and anxieties and then role model or note the challenging questions, that the newb should be asking. 

In short, for a real seasoned pro, its not the ego, but acknowledging the humility and privileged for the opportunity to share an epic experience.


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## chomps1211 (Mar 30, 2011)

I was not at all familiar with the term,.. "_Hueristic traps,"_ I had to google it and this is what I got. Figured it might be worth posting for others to whom the term is also unfamiliar.



S*o what are 'heuristics traps', and why are they dangerous?*

Put simply, heuristics are a fundamental part of how humans make decisions and judgements satisfactorily but at the risk or expense of a perfect solution. They're a mental shortcut that allows us to reach a short-term goal by defying sensible logic or common sense, for instance, by not checking the snowpack before traversing a slab because you've never known it to avalanche before.

At their most basic level, approaches to scenarios using trial-and-error and rule of thumb are examples of heuristics, and while they are essential to making subconscious and minor decisions in daily life (if we thought through everything we did, we'd never get anything done) they are potentially lethal in a mountain environment.

Schneiwind believes there are four key forms of heuristic that people fall victim to in the mountains:

*Over-commitment to a goal:*. Knowing when to turn back no matter how far you've hiked out is the key factor. If it's taking longer than you thought, or if the weather looks like it could turn, don't just press on because you feel you have to. "Pursuing a goal because of timing issues, such as approaching darkness, or other constraints, which they gave precedence".

*Familiarity with the terrain:* "This is another shortcut that again saved skiers going through the time-consuming process of assessing the risk, on the grounds that if they had done it several times before it must be okay."

*Scarcity:* You're on holiday for a week, and it has just had the snowfall of the season, but just because the opportunity doesn't arise often, it doesn't mean you should ignore warning signs. "[Great conditions] would lead skiers to throw caution to the wind", says Schneiwind.

*Social proof:* Just because someone has hiked or skied a line before, doesn't mean the route is safe. "Seeing that other people had done a run, with its very limited value in reducing risk, is probably the greatest danger."

Hope this helps others better understand.


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## neni (Dec 24, 2012)

To play devil's advocate... it's easy to blame the guide. Afterwards. With all the afterwards knowledge on how the storm did roll. But. We do not know if the guide and group actually discussed if the day is feasible. It could have been the other way around: the turist pressure effect. Guide mentioning reluctance, proposing other safer route or to postpone by a day, and the group putting pressure on him to stick with the itinerary.

I don't say that it was like that. We don't know. But we also don't know if it wasn't. I also don't say I agree with guides givi g in on group pressure, but know from a seasoned guide in Chamonix guiding Mont-Blanch tours that they get a huge amount of pressure to do exactly what the itinerary lists, cos ppl have their expectations, flights booked the next day or whatnot, or else they won't be booked anymore. We as guests should think about this, too. Wise decisions need time to wait for another day.


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## kalev (Dec 17, 2013)

Another take-away from this article is the potential complacency due to it being a very well know / traveled route, with fairly posh huts, lots of guides on the route etc. 

I know from personal experience I have a tendency to get lazy when things are 'easy.' Even in the summer, they say that a lot of bear attacks happen close to parking lots, trail heads or close to populated areas - possibly due to a perceived sense of safety. 

Good read - thanks for posting!


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## killclimbz (Aug 10, 2007)

neni said:


> To play devil's advocate... it's easy to blame the guide. Afterwards. With all the afterwards knowledge on how the storm did roll. But. We do not know if the guide and group actually discussed if the day is feasible. It could have been the other way around: the turist pressure effect. Guide mentioning reluctance, proposing other safer route or to postpone by a day, and the group putting pressure on him to stick with the itinerary.
> 
> I don't say that it was like that. We don't know. But we also don't know if it wasn't. I also don't say I agree with guides givi g in on group pressure, but know from a seasoned guide in Chamonix guiding Mont-Blanch tours that they get a huge amount of pressure to do exactly what the itinerary lists, cos ppl have their expectations, flights booked the next day or whatnot, or else they won't be booked anymore. We as guests should think about this, too. Wise decisions need time to wait for another day.


Oh for sure. There is a ton of pressure on the guides to deliver. This is how they make a living after all. This is the 2nd or 3rd article I have read about this accident. The one thing that really stuck out was the, "well he's an awesome guide, we're fine" attitude. Unfortunately, he was having a bad hair day so to speak. It happens to everyone. You would think with several other groups deciding it was better to buckle down and wait it out, they would have discussed more of doing the same. Being right above a place a safety and not knowing it was another drag, but it really shouldn't have come to that. 

Tough accident. Right up there with Sheep and Tunnel Creeks in terms of tragedy and trying to figure out what went wrong.


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## Grandpa (Jan 20, 2013)

Good read. Thanks for sharing Neni.


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## f00bar (Mar 6, 2014)

neni said:


> To play devil's advocate... it's easy to blame the guide. Afterwards. With all the afterwards knowledge on how the storm did roll. But. We do not know if the guide and group actually discussed if the day is feasible. It could have been the other way around: the turist pressure effect. Guide mentioning reluctance, proposing other safer route or to postpone by a day, and the group putting pressure on him to stick with the itinerary.


A guide who sacrifices safety for business and money to me seems to be the opposite of a good guide.

Still seems to me that the primary cause of all of this was reliance that the GPS would get them where they needed to be regardless of conditions. And when that didn't happen they were in too deep. Take that out of the situation and they likely never would have ventured into the storm.


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## snowbadger (Feb 4, 2013)

thanks for posting the link. its an interesting read. 

I think the psychological aspect of why we decide to blindly follow a guide in many of these typical types of scenarios is one that doesn't get addressed that often. We always have the safety of the environment and the equipment we carry drummed into us, so its good to be reminded that for many of us its our personality/decision making/questioning ability that also plays a big part of keeping us safe


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## DaveMcI (Aug 19, 2013)

Good job finding this thread, it must have gotten lost


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## YawgooBread (2 mo ago)

Thanks for drawing attention to this. So, so, so important to reflect on what we as a community, and individuals, can do to be safer.


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## DaveMcI (Aug 19, 2013)

Hey rhode island! Goons goons goons


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