# supposedly an el nino year?



## j.gnar (Sep 4, 2009)

i've been hearing a lot about this/next year being a moderate to strong el nino, but i am no meteorologist. after doing some research it does look like this year is showing signs of trending into the el nino pattern. what effect do you think this will have on the snow for the upcoming season? i know there are supposed to be more storms due to the rising sea temperatures but i also know that it makes for warmer storms...causing the elevation for snowfall to rise. i was only a little kid during the last gnarly el nino so i dont remember much. anyone out there keen on el nino or weather patterns?


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## burritosandsnow (Nov 22, 2008)

in Utah you cant call it as we live right on the weather boundary ...weve had el nino years that dump and weve had el nino years that barely see valley snow ( 4000 ft ) but still get average snow in the mtns ... its a toss up /shrug 

im just sending good snow vibes to everyone!!!


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## baseline6 (Mar 12, 2009)

it all depends on where you are and how el nino will affect the jet steam for the upcoming winter season. Last time el nino conditions were strong city's along the west coast in California doubled they're yearly rainfall expectancy. basicly a strong el nino means more precipitation for the west coast. but if moderate it can shift the jet stream above California making the conditions dry for California. currently conditions are leaning toward being more moderate then strong for the upcoming year. back in 97-98 when el nino was strong pacific water temperature were 2 degree's higher. right now temperatures are a degree higher then what they should be. if conditions are moderate jet stream stays wavy moving toward washingtion. if el nino goes strong it will straighten out the jet stream makeing it a straight shot for SO CAL. check out the farmers almanac if you really wanna know what conditions are expected to be like in your area


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## MunkySpunk (Jan 7, 2009)

NOAA - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - El NiÃ±o Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10
NASA - El Niño at Play as Source of More Intense Regional U.S. Wintertime Storms
El Nino Conditions Set in Across Pacific Ocean : Image of the Day

The impact depends on where in the country you live. The Northeast is a mixed bag, and that even depends on where in the Northeast you live.

PSA: Don't forget kiddies, NASA funding is a huge waste of time and money. You see absolutely no benefit in your everyday lives from their work. :dunno:


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## arsenic0 (Nov 11, 2008)

baseline6 said:


> it all depends on where you are and how el nino will affect the jet steam for the upcoming winter season. Last time el nino conditions were strong city's along the west coast in California doubled they're yearly rainfall expectancy. basicly a strong el nino means more precipitation for the west coast. but if moderate it can shift the jet stream above California making the conditions dry for California. currently conditions are leaning toward being more moderate then strong for the upcoming year. back in 97-98 when el nino was strong pacific water temperature were 2 degree's higher. right now temperatures are a degree higher then what they should be. if conditions are moderate jet stream stays wavy moving toward washingtion. if el nino goes strong it will straighten out the jet stream makeing it a straight shot for SO CAL. check out the farmers almanac if you really wanna know what conditions are expected to be like in your area


Dont worry we'll put all the snow you give us to good use up here!


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## j.gnar (Sep 4, 2009)

well i live in southern california and last year we had a pretty weak season, so im hoping we (and every other state near us) get dumped on for some serious riding this year


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## jeri534 (Feb 19, 2008)

the last el nino was winter of 06/07 and Mt Baker in WA had a good season with 659 inches


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## Guest (Sep 7, 2009)

So is this el nino year going to be good or bad for resorts around Lake Tahoe??


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## j.gnar (Sep 4, 2009)

i dont know too much about snowfall in the tahoe area but from what i've heard from friends it pretty much always gets a decent amount of snow. correct me if im wrong


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## Guest (Sep 7, 2009)

well we usually get a good amount of snow but last season the snow was pretty spotty at times. Im just hopping for massive amounts of powder days


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## jmacphee9 (Nov 11, 2008)

im thoroughly confused, alls i know is last big el nino i remember michigan got burried


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## Jay29 (Dec 2, 2008)

The last el nino we had really warm winter.:dunno:


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## baseline6 (Mar 12, 2009)

Just read this article on what an astrometeorologist is forecasting " Pacific Northwest skiers and riders should prepare for a warm wet winter and early spring, says astrometeorologist Theodore White. White predicts that 2010 will go down as one of the warmest and wettest years in recent memory in North and South America. In the shorter term, we will begin to see more El Nino events facilitated by the Sun's activity starting end of September. Plus, just before winter arrives, rains will increase in the far west, stretching into the Inter-mountain west, and the Pacific Northwest. Expect heavy rains in the Southwestern Desert states and Southeastern U.S"


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## j.gnar (Sep 4, 2009)

well that just chaps my ass, i was semi-stoked on the hope of a decent snow season 
but who knows, the only way we will find out is when winter rolls around


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## baseline6 (Mar 12, 2009)

Snowolf said:


> it sounds like it might be raining as much as it is snowing on the mountain and then come March, an unusually war and dry spring.


. Over here or up there? Won't all this make the elevation for snow to fall higher


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## j.gnar (Sep 4, 2009)

Snowolf said:


> I see you live in So Cali, you may fare very well if we do gaet a strong El Nino. Mammoth and June and Big Bear could be epic as So Cali gets hammered in an El Nino. I already have plans to go back to Arizona to shred at Sunrise and Snowbowl this season.


hmmm well big bear is ~8k feet above sea level so im not too sure about snowfall if its going to be warmer, although someone suggested i check the farmers almanac(which i did) and the temperatures are going to be a tad bit below normal for this winter. bear gets cold enough to make their own snow and since the lake is right there, they have almost a limitless supply of water. mammoth and june get blasted almost every year, the only downside is its a 6-7 hour drive and the lift tickets are upwards of 85 bucks :/ 

heres some pics from mammoth in 06 with record snowfall, 632 inches!


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## baseline6 (Mar 12, 2009)

Snowolf said:


> I mean that we could see the snow levels be a lot higher and instead of getting snow at the resorts, we could be getting rain....:thumbsdown:
> 
> Oh, I see what you are saying....I mean up here in the PNW, You guys in Arizona could be heading for a really good winter up on the Mogollon Rim. I have two Southwest Airlines tickets to use so I will be hitting Arizona at least twice this year.


Yeah I'm really hopeing arizona will be epic this season... I just bought my season pass to sunrise and I got my schedule fixed at work to accomidate it. During december -march I'm working 3 days a week so I can be at the mtn twice a week


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## baseline6 (Mar 12, 2009)

Snowolf said:


> If there is any truth to this Astrometeorology, it will enhance the normal El Nino and Arizona could really be in for an epic winter. Not only is this good for shredding, but it could help break this damn 8 year severe drought the southwest is in. I would love to see Lake Roosevelt filled to capacity for a change, to say nothing about Lake Powell.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Yeah im planning a trip out to Colorado in march next year for some late season boarding. I heard march is the best time to board in colorado. i was told thats when they get most of there snow fall for the year. any truth? this season could be a great 1 for us out here in az i really hope the forecasts are right


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## laz167 (Nov 27, 2007)

I don't put to much into this, and living on the eastcoast I depend on riding on man mad stuff anyways. As for the Farmers Almanac, I 'll listen to that more than regular. I remember reading it last year and they were about 80% on point which is scary. And I'm with MPD on this as lake affect snows stretch as far as VT.


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## Jay29 (Dec 2, 2008)

laz167 said:


> As for the Farmers Almanac, I 'll listen to that more than regular. I remember reading it last year and they were about 80% on point which is scary. And I'm with MPD on this as lake affect snows stretch as far as VT.



I agree!!

*2008-09 winter farmers almanac*

Snow?
Precipitation-wise, most of the South, as well as the Midwest, should experience above-normal conditions, while the rest of the nation will average close to normal. With below-normal winter temperatures and an above-normal precipitation forecast, the Great Lakes and Midwest will see above-normal snowfalls, especially during January and February.

Above-normal precipitation is forecast for the Southwest during December 2008 and for the Southeast in January and February 2009. It should also turn out to be an unusually wet and/or snowy February across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

In contrast, for the Pacific Northwest, where wet weather is usually the rule during the winter, February could actually turn out to be a bit drier than normal.


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## killclimbz (Aug 10, 2007)

For Cali it generally means above average snowfall. The thing is that sometimes you have to wait for it. The last big El Nino event didn't do jack until the end of February. After that though, look out. All sorts of records were set. So you might have to wait for it, but once it's on, it's on. Of course then the biggest problem is having open roads to get to the resorts because of the heavy snowfall.

It kind of does the same thing in Colorado. Though it seems to be a bit more sporadic. The dry time can happen anytime in the season. When it does it can be many weeks before another snowfall which is unusual for this region. Or like last time, it can just shut off in April and that's it. Hard to say. I prefer a season like two years ago where once it started snowing it continued right on through closing day for almost all the areas.


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## killclimbz (Aug 10, 2007)

baseline6 said:


> Yeah im planning a trip out to Colorado in march next year for some late season boarding. I heard march is the best time to board in colorado. i was told thats when they get most of there snow fall for the year. any truth? this season could be a great 1 for us out here in az i really hope the forecasts are right


March is the snowiest month. It was alright last year. Lately as of the last 4 years or so though, it's also been pretty dry. Generally the best month for good snow is the middle of January. It tends to be super cold then, but that helps the snow that falls to stick around and stay fresh. Above tree line can be miserable though. Wind chills frequently hit -80 Fahrenheit and the high temps can be lucky to hit 10 degrees Fahrenheit. March is definitely a warmer more comfortable month and as mentioned it dumps then too. With the warmer days, by the afternoon the snow can be getting pretty mushy and mash potato like. So to find good snow a day or two after the storm, you'll have to look for shaded north facing areas. Also the higher up the mountain the better. Anything below 10k ft is going to be pretty baked most of the time.


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## baseline6 (Mar 12, 2009)

sorry guys ill post it again i must have got windows mixed up with my myspace page


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## Jay29 (Dec 2, 2008)

baseline6 said:


> just read this article


You have to log in.


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## killclimbz (Aug 10, 2007)

I logged in and got nothing. Linky no worky...


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## baseline6 (Mar 12, 2009)

this is thearticle

this 1 also


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## chupacabraman (Jul 30, 2009)

Check out these maps showing snowfall variation during previous El Nino winters across the US...
Climate Prediction Center - Monitoring & Data: United States Temperature & Precipitation ENSO Impacts
(you'll want to concentrate on the map titled "El Nino mean - Neutreal mean")

How does El Nino (and La Nina) effect the Pacific Northwest?...
Skiing the Cascade Volcanoes: Cascades El Niño / La Niña (ENSO) Snowfall


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## Guest (Sep 13, 2009)

The word in NorCal is for a HEAVY El Nino winter... that's the buzz at least


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## Nivek (Jan 24, 2008)

I just hope we don't have as awkward a year in summit as this past one. Warmer in February than March? not ok. We saw bare patches in February and puddles in the lift lines. Then in March we had like 4 big storms if I remember right, might have only been 3...


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## j.gnar (Sep 4, 2009)

Nivek said:


> I just hope we don't have as awkward a year in summit as this past one. Warmer in February than March? not ok. We saw bare patches in February and puddles in the lift lines. Then in March we had like 4 big storms if I remember right, might have only been 3...


summit in socal? like bear mtn area?


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## Guest (Sep 15, 2009)

I heard the same thing....hoping thats the truth!


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## j.gnar (Sep 4, 2009)

the new forecast looks to be pretty promising!

AccuWeather.com - Weather Blogs - Weather News


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## baseline6 (Mar 12, 2009)

yeah its great still seeing forecasts like this so close to winter... i cant wait for the snow to start falling in AZ


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## Willy36 (Dec 29, 2008)

All I know is the last El Nino meant almost nothing for where I lived then right in the middle of Colorado and the El Nino before that meant the biggest snowstorm of my lifetime for a huge portion of the state :dunno:


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